The importance of consumer multihoming (joint purchases) for market performance: Mergers and entry in media markets

Consumer “multihoming” (watching two TV channels, or buying two news magazines) has surprisingly important effects on market equilibrium and performance in (two‐sided) media markets. We show this by introducing consumer multihoming and advertising finance into the classic circle model of product differentiation. When consumers multihome (attend more than one platform), media platforms can charge only incremental value prices to advertisers. Entry or merger leaves consumer prices unchanged under consumer multihoming, but leaves advertiser prices unchanged under single‐homing: Multihoming flips the side of the market on which platforms compete. In contrast to standard circle results, equilibrium product variety can be insufficient under multihoming.     

Testing Rival Theories of Budgetary Decision–making in the US States

This article tests three common budgetary decision–making theories in the US states. Pooled time series cross–section analysis is used from 1960 to 1996 to test the garbage can theory and incrementalism, and from 1989 to 1996 to test various theories of rational budgeting. The results demonstrate that there was some support for all three theories in terms of their impact on reducing state budget outputs. Rational budgeting reduces expenditures in aggregate, incrementalism has relatively low explanatory power below the aggregates, and garbage can budgeting is more prevalent in functional areas than for government as a whole. These findings imply that the future research agenda on budgetary decision–making theories should focus more on a system–wide approach, which takes into account many of the characteristics of all three rival models of decision–making, rather than exclusively focusing on each one singly.     

企业竞争策略中的成本效益分析方法

企业每一项经营决策都应该进行成本效益分析，市场竞争中可以根据本企业的成本曲线和需求曲线，预测出竞争策略实施后对内部成本和外部需求可能产生的影响，从而计算出某项决策的经济效果。     

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

论我国农村金融的增量改革

通过考察农村金融组织制度变迁的过程，发现每次变迁几乎都是在政府主导下进行的，其变迁结果却差强人意；而且，由于信用社、农业发展银行等几乎垄断了农村金融，其进行自我变革的内在动力不足，根据制度变迁理论并引入制度变迁的跨时期成本分析，应进行“增量改革”，即发展新的金融组织以对现有的金融机构施加外在压力，利用市场竞争促使其进行自我变革，满足农村金融需求以促进农村发展。     

基于发展权与功能损失的农村宅基地流转增值收益分配研究——以义乌市“集地券”为例

研究目的:从宅基地流转功能损失角度构建增值收益分配模型,探寻基于土地发展权的宅基地流转增值收益分配方法。研究方法:综合分析法,模型测算法,实证分析法。研究结果:义乌市制定的"集地券"流转模式的实质是运用市场机制实现土地发展权空间转移,通过"集地券"形式获得的宅基地增值收益约为1152元/m2;宅基地流转过程中,政府应补偿宅基地居住保障、社会保障以及文化服务功能价值损失,约为234元/m2;基于发展权和功能损失角度,义乌市政府、村集体和农民分享宅基地流转增值收益的比例为40∶11∶49。研究结论:建立在基准地价基础上对宅基地的土地发展权价值进行分配,并结合宅基地功能损失补偿农民体现公平原则,也接近地方政策规定及实际分配比例,符合建立兼顾国家、集体、个人的土地增值收益分配机制的改革方向。     

基于特征增量的新类识别方法研究

在分类应用的过程中,经常会出现新的类别,导致数据分布发生显著变化,使得原分类模型不再适用。如何识别新的类别使分类模型能适应其出现已经成为一个亟需解决的问题。本文提出基于特征增量的SVDD(支持向量数据描述)新类识别方法。该方法在SVDD算法的基础上,通过增加新特征,扩大特征空间维度从而提高模型对于新类的识别能力。在多个数据集上的实验结果表明,该方法能有效识别新类,使更新后的模型具有更高的准确度。     

Measuring the shopper's attitude toward the point of sale display: Scale development and validation

In Europe alone, marketers invest several hundred million of Euros in marketing activities at the point of sale every year. A prominent role is assigned to display promotions. However, despite their large practical importance, surprisingly, there is no measure to pre-evaluate different displays and their design facets so that the display which reached the best pre-evaluation results may be identified and, if poor rated facets were found, those may be altered before production and rollout of the display in question. Therefore, this paper develops and validates a scale to measure the shopper's attitude toward a point of sale display reflecting all relevant facets of a display from the shopper's point of view. Examination of the scale led to satisfactory results in terms of reliability, validity, and its predictive power for purchase intention. Summarizing, the scale can help to improve display designs prior to rollout, thus, enhancing the efficiency of display promotions.     

稀释每股收益计算问题研究

潜在稀释性证券是指赋予持有者在报告期或以后期间享有普通股权利的一种金融工具或其他合同。在计算和列报"稀释每股收益"时,考虑潜在稀释性证券的影响,可以提供一个更可比、更有用的财务指标。但是不同的潜在稀释性证券存在着不同的稀释能力,本文将基于增量股每股收益法,提出对于评价潜在稀释性证券稀释能力的一些看法和思考。     

电渣重熔炉自动控制系统设计

电渣重熔的自耗电极电流大小取决于电极与渣池的距离,而该距离大小又取决于电极驱动电机的转速。只要实时测量电极的电流,对实测值和设定值进行比较,用增量式PID控制原理对电机转速进行控制,并摸索出合适的PID参数,即可获得稳定的电极电流。